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Confidence has grown overnight that we will be looking at a FL Panhandle landfall on Tuesday.
Another model (HWRF) shows a landfall just to the East of Pensacola
The latest GFS (another reliable model) shows a landfall near Apalachicola
The latest ECMWF (reliable model) shows a landfall between Mobile & Pensacola
The latest forecasted wind bands from the NHC for TS Isaac:
Here is our latest thinking based on all the data we have reviewed today. Current picture - it will change I'm sure:
The FL peninsula/Miami is still not out of the woods. 4 days til impact-A lot can chg w/storm & models-door still open.
Historically this model (ECMWF) has been the most reliable. This is from today's run. A strong Isaac near LK Charles:
Isaac's latest wind field forecast as the storm moves through the Caribbean Sea:
Looking at the models, it appears the threat to S FL has diminished..need a few more run cycles to make a call...
Threat level maps for SE FL/Bahamas/Cuba region:
Our latest Gulf off Mexico threat level map which targets highest threat areas:
Close up Gulf view of our cone of uncertainty: Everyone please follow this storm...
Here is our latest 5 day cone of uncertainty..westward movement..
If you reside anywhere within the orange cone, you need to have supplies just in case. Whole area is still in play...
The latest NHC track keeps hurricane force winds OFF the FL Peninsula...
We are confident that the center will make landfall somewhere in the orange cone-will narrow down more in coming days..
We are 80% sure than the track will end up in our orange cone & the US will be affected. Exactly where? Too early..
Due to Isaac's lack of a well-defined center, track MAY end of more westerly. Expanded to include N Gulf coast.
Red area winds would be at least 74 mph +, yellow - 58 mph + & green 39 mph +. All of S FL would be affected..
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