21:55 utc update just time warped the numbers exactly to those shown 8 & 1/2 hours b4 (23, 52, 41) interesting..

still possible: 1117 going pop: 37% flare probability. 50% m, 51% x. might be better if 1117 goes pop that way: http://twitpic.com/31eq1x

29% probability 4 a flare now, m/ x class probability up to 58% each. => 16,82% total probability for m/ x flare

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov:8080/IswaSystemWebApp/ -> ASAP Flare Monitor

so the total probability for a class m flare is 11,96%, class x 9,43%.